Realism is a key theory in international relations it basically claims to explain the reality of international politics. There are four key assumptions of realism they are: state-centricity; the state as a unitary, rational actor; the notion of power; the primacy of national security issues; and the emphasis on structure. According to the article ‘Realist world the players change, but the game remains’ by Stephen Kotkin we are entering a realist world he further argues by providing examples from contemporary geopolitics by mainly focusing on two great powers US and china. These two great powers represents completely opposite ideologies while US is categorized as a democratic country and China which also claims to be democratic it is often viewed by other entities as an authoritarian one party state since it doesn’t fit in the framework of western style liberal democracy. According to the author these two states will exert great influence in the coming centuries depending on their material and human capital and their ability to govern themselves and their foreign affairs. Apart from the ideological disputes between US and China other factors that drive the rivalry between them are national interests and power issues therefore it is apparent that relationship of these two countries America as the world’s greatest power and China as the world’s greatest emerging power will determine the future of global politics.
After the world war one US emerged as a world power and has been in a superior position ever since therefore it has maintained power and influence over the world in comparison with US China is relatively weak. Although the authoritarian approach of China is predicted to fail it has not occurred yet and China seems to be moving well amidst these assumptions. Globalization enabled social mobility and human progress was pioneered by democracy which was powered by states such as US but this was cut short during the great depression era. The greatest economic downturn in US history, the Great Depression, occurred in the latter half of the 19th century, and the years 1929-1939 saw a significant drop in stock prices due to the following factors: 1929’s stock market crash. The Smoot-Hawley tariff, policies of the government, bank failures, panics, and the collapse of the money supply all contributed to the October 24 crash of the Wall Street stock market. The global financial crisis of 2008 was anticipated to produce a similar outcome, but it was able to survive through a number of emergency measures. However Globalization boosted economic development but the emergence of nationalism over became an issue for its journey moreover according to Realism globalization is a negative development as states become more connected due this connectivity ad interdependence suspicion will arise and states will become vulnerable and insecure. In the article it states that US and China rose into prominence in the weakness of the other for example Chinas industriousness was achieved due to the economic openness and global security which was provided by US. Furthermore another key aspect of Realism ‘self-interest’ was the driving force behind the implementation of voluntary alliances, multilateral institutions and free trade by US and its pursuit of global military domination. Relations between China and US have been marked by wars and questionable diplomatic relations, Taiwan issue is major conflict that could force China and US confront each other directly, China recognizes Taiwan as a part of Chinese territory. Due to globalization which allowed Taiwan to prosper and enjoy a sense of individuality as a separate state doesn’t share the same opinion and more in favor with being an independent state. US in order to stop the spread of communism has often treaded on the line of balancing supporting Taiwan and preventing war with china. Recently the China-Taiwan relations have become tense and US president Joe Biden has openly declared that US will come into the aid of Taiwan therefore this situation could lead into war between China and US.in realist perspective if Taiwan is not an ally or a buffer Taiwan could be a threat to china it overlooks one of the most significant trade passages therefore china’s Taiwan policy does not give space
for other great powers such as US to isolate and constrain China.
Realist politics tries to find a way to end crises and conflicts on a global scale by taking measures to protect their borders and general “sphere of influence” in neighboring nations. Ukraine and Russia have an incredibly entwined, complex history that goes back many years. Following the dissolution of the Union of Soviet Socialist Republics (USSR) in 1991, Ukraine finally achieved full sovereignty despite centuries of struggle to maintain its independence. However, the Clinton administration only took a few years to begin expanding the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) and its member states. Twenty-five years ago, this liberal idea of “enlargement” was very popular, and it is still a fundamental idea that is ingrained in Western democracies. However, it directly contradicts Putin’s Realist viewpoint, who has spoken out against NATO expansion and the expansion of the European Union (EU) since assuming power in 1999. Ukraine has Pro-Russian separatist areas, which Putin has already used as a guise to initiate the invasion in an effort to reunite the former Soviet Union territories. Crimea was a pretext to this calculated aggression from Putin, who is increasingly paranoid about Russia losing its sphere of influence, which will snowball into a national security matter for the Kremlin.Ukraine-Russia war is another global event that contains realist underpinnings. Russia feared Ukraine would join NATO if so Russia would be deprived of a buffer and would be vulnerable backed up by the members of NATO Ukraine could attack Russia to resolve the disputes and threaten the security of the state. In this case however the aggression caused by Russia forced Ukraine to get more connected with NATO which was the very thing they feared would happen finally did happen ironically Ukraine was driven to it by Russia itself.
Parallels could be seen between Russia-Ukraine war and China-Taiwan conflict. Russia and China share the same insecurities of being vulnerable to threats. Chinas growing aggression could lead to Taiwan forming alliances with other powerful states to maintain ‘balance of power’ so that china would hesitate to go into war with Taiwan. This war has the potential to turn into a proxy war between US and China. South China Sea dispute is another global event that could be used as an example. This dispute is between South East Asian countries. Important trade routes go over this area and contains islands with natural resources therefore theres competition between states to gain power china has increased the amount of involvement in the area since international stage is anarchic theres is no supreme authority to regulate these behavior.
The Syrian conflict can be addressed by the realist approach, according to realism state is the pre-eminent actor and it has the highest authority in international system. Three UN resolutions that sought to impose sanctions on the Syrian government and call for an end to violence were blocked by Russia and China, who are both permanent members of the Security Council. Due to their influence, the United Nations was unable to back foreign military intervention in Syria. Since Major Powers have the most resources available in the international system, so their activities are regarded as systemic. Pursue of Self-interest is apparent in this scenario.
Libya crisis explains classical realist’s theory of international intervention. Resolution 1973 of the UN Security Council was adopted in 2011 and called for a no-fly zone over Libya to safeguard civilians. (The Guardian, 2011). Unlike its decision on the resolutions pertaining to the involvement in Syria
Chinas Belt and Road Initiative began in 2013 during the term of Xi Jinping, China’s current president, the project has a huge scope. However, there is a great deal of concern in the international community that the specifics of the BRI are both opaque and unfavorable to the nations getting investment, despite the
opportunities that such investment could present to developing nations. Through debt-based foreign investments in developing countries, China is gaining leverage that can be used to either strengthen its economic power or persuade governments to act more in accordance with Chinese interests. This scenario can be explained through ‘self-help’ aspect of realism
The disputes between India and Pakistan, are the best indicator of the geopolitics of the subcontinent. Both of these war-prone nations have engaged in roughly the same number of border skirmishes and gone to war at least three times. Even in non-military areas like the economy and politics, both countries are thriving to advance ahead of the other, especially now that both have nuclear weapons.
This demonstrates the pessimistic view of human nature, which is that people are naturally greedy for power
According to Stephen Kotkin there are four things to focus on:
1. From the beginning of an open, integrated world, Western policymakers will need to devise strategies to the advantage of their larger majorities.
2. Instead of using force, Chinese policymakers must develop their nation peacefully.
3. When it comes to China, the United States will need to find the right balance between strong deterrence and strong reassurance while also cleaning up its own house. Taiwan’s security must be taken into consideration.
Although the article mainly focuses on US-China relations when other global events are taken into consideration it is apparent that we indeed are entering a realist world.
